[Statistical] Comparisons Are Odious

Pay no attention to the statistician behind the curtain

For a really interesting read, try QED by Richard Feynman. Feynman makes the subject much more approachable than its scary full name, Quantum Electrodynamics.

QED describes phenomena that show that much of physical reality is based on probabilities. It inspires one to think probabilistically and statistically, so that instead of telling oneself “The butler did it,” the probabilistic thinker says “The probability that the butler did it is P_bdi.”

My perception is that thinking probabilistically will make a person happier, smarter, calmer and less dogmatic.

However: Comparisons based on statistical probabilities can have the opposite effect, as suggested by this observation attributed to Aristotle, Milton and others:

“Comparisons are odious.”

Statistical comparisons of sets of people such as

. “Women are ___% more likely to…”

. “People of color are ___% less likely to…”

...can make the person in the “disadvantaged” portion of the set feel either 1) inadequate, or 2) like a victim. Statistical comparisons can be the most odious comparisons of all, particularly for those who indulge in applying them to themselves.

Here’s a non-statistic that helps illustrate the point:

My wife is a successful and very competent investment banker, the co-founder of an investment banking firm with 23 partners, another fifty employees, and nine offices around the world. I am one her many admirers and am immensely proud of her accomplishments.

Where does my wife fit in a set of statistics about women in the workplace? I don’t know and she probably doesn’t know, except that she’s usually the only woman in a meeting.

What we both do know is that she does investment banking because she’s good at it and for that reason she enjoys it.

If you do what you are good at, you’ll probably enjoy doing it.

So, do what you are good at, and ignore what the statistics say you should be good at.

Do not make yourself miserable by doing something to prove that you’re an exception to a statistic, or to prove the statistic wrong.

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About the author

In 1981 Wes Kussmaul, working with friends at the MIT Joint Computer Facility, created the world’s first online encyclopedia, implemented using what he calls “the world’s worst business model.” Over the the next year the addition of social features transformed the encyclopedia into the more sustainable Delphi social network, which in 1993 was sold to Rupert Murdoch’s News America Corp.

Wes is the author of four books about bringing accountability with privacy back to social networks. One of those books caught the attention of a group at the ITU, a United Nations agency, while it was building a global PKI-based source of trust that resembled what the book advocated. Wes announced its re-launch as The City of Osmio in a 2008 presentation to the United Nations World Summit on Information Society. Wes is also the creator of Stoanova, an approach to Stoicism as it applies to problem solving.

Wes is the founder of The Authenticity Institute, a provider of a PKI platform to licensed Authenticity Enterprises, which may be seen here. The outcome of the work of those Authenticity Enterprises may be seen at Authentiverse.