A Plan For Taiwan

Quick quiz: What’s the capital of New York State?

If you’re from outside the USA you’ll be forgiven for answering “New York City.” While the City of New York is indeed a center of activity and a powerful economic engine for the region, in fact the capital of New York is a smallish city called Albany. New York City is the tail that wags the dog of New York State.

In one way, China’s political-economic infrastructure resembles New York State’s, on a much larger scale. But they’re very different in another way.

They’re similar in that while Beijing may be China’s political and ideological capital, it is not the engine of China’s economic power. That distinction belongs to dynamic, globally connected cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong.

But when it comes to the power exercised by the political capital, Albany and Beijing are opposites. Albany understands that economies thrive under openness and erode under centralized authoritarian control, while Beijing is relentless in attempting to dominate and control the business enterprises that account for the success of China’s economy.

Chinese businesses seemed to grudgingly tolerate such interference until Jack Ma, the particularly entrepreneurial and immensely successful CEO of Ant Group, was arrested for daring to be publicly critical of the CCP – Chinese Communist Party. He was removed from his company, whose IPO was suddenly blocked by the party.

Naturally, the treatment of Ma had a dampening effect on the willingness of other Chinese business leaders to discuss economic matters openly. However, it surely caused some of them to think what it would be like to expand in, or even move to, Taiwan, where companies like TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), Acer, ASUS and Delta Electronics among other business powerhouses have contributed to Taiwan’s global economic relevance. They have thrived in Taiwan’s open and rules-based business environment.

What if Taiwan were to deliver the following message:

We expect that your navy and army will be paying us a surprise visit in the next few years and will attempt to conquer this proudly independent and powerful country. It’s likely to cost a lot of death and destruction.

But it’s true, you might succeed.

Please keep in mind the following if Taiwan becomes part of the Peoples Republic of China:

1. Our economic engine is more substantial than Hong Kong to start with, and we have been busily increasing the size and influence of that engine by recruiting the best and brightest of your business leaders and engineers.

Thank you for making this part of it easy. As Bill Bishop, the author of the China-focused newsletter Sinocism, wrote: "The party has once again reminded all private entrepreneurs that no matter how rich and successful you are it can pull the rug out from under your feet at any time."

Seriously, why would anyone want to build a business in that environment? We assure you, there has been much expression of interest in expanding and relocating here.

And by unifying our countries you will remove administrative barriers to migrating companies like BYD to Taiwan. (You do understand that the advanced EV technology used by companies like BYD comes from Taiwan, right?)

2. If you do try to mess with our freedoms, we will maintain the loyalty of our own army, navy, and air force. Again, we’re not Hong Kong; we have a real military. Our people value their freedom and they will do their best to infect your people with a love of freedom. Are you ready for that? Have you considered what will happen to your autocracy when our freedom-loving DNA becomes part of it?

3. Speaking of Hong Kong, if we become part of China then we will have a basis for working with other provinces – such as Hong Kong and its repressed dissidents. Together we’ll use our media resources to remind the Chinese people of what happened thirty five years ago in Tiananmen Square. Already, the alert young people in China know that they can bypass your “great firewall” through the simple use of VPNs. We will work hard to ensure that the larger population knows how to get to the web.

4. The CCP has invited the wrath of the Chinese people by restricting their ability to invest in anything other than failed residential real estate projects. We will make sure they understand that that’s not the way investment works in the free world – and that you have cost them their life savings in your ill considered policies. Are you ready to deal with millions of your people coming to know how you destroyed their hard earned financial nest egg?

5. Beijing and its CCP are already on borrowed time. Compared with the value contributed by the massive economic powerhouses of Shanghai and Shenjen, what does Beijing contribute but obsolete, discredited socialist ideology, bureaucracy, and unnecessary restrictions that just inhibit progress? Once we are part of China we’ll work hard to form an alliance of value producing regions – ie not Beijing; not your oppressive and useless CCP. Again, this will not be a hard sell. The market is ready for our message. You know that, don’t you.

In short, Taiwan will become the new tail that wags your old Beijing dog. We will be the de facto capital of a new freedom-loving China, regardless of what your dusty old books and maps say.

Taiwan will call the shots in the new China.

Are you ready for that?