True enough, the only reason Taiwan isn't already under the CCP's control is because of how well it is defended, and because of its allies. But things can change.
They say, you can vote your way into totalitarianism, but you have to shoot your way out. And more an more people choose de facto totalitarianism. All you have to do is call it "preserving democracy".
Centuries ago, every year was pretty much a repeat of the previous year. There's good and bad in that.
The 'average' citizen has always been a factor, even in totalitarian societies. But it's easier to make things better in a 'free' society'. And more difficult in a totalitarian society. But, yes, it's all subjective.
Stay tuned for an upcoming post to that effect on my Substack.
Perhaps it's true that the only reason Taiwan isn't already under the CCP's control is because of how well it *has been* defended, and because of its allies. But looking forward, Xi gets more paranoid every year (the occupational hazard of the authoritarian career) while Taiwan's industry gets more vital to the world's economy every year. And every year, human soldiers and sailors become less important in warfare, so every year that China advantage erodes. At the pace of development of AI managed drone swarms, can you imagine what warfare is going to look like by the time China sets out with its tubs to attack?
But China is developing drones, too. Russia is using drones offensively in Ukraine. The next big thing in invasions might be a sky full of drones that can only be defended by another sky full of defensive drones.
And let's never forget tactical nuclear devices...
OK, so we have two countries, one of which has a huge military recruitment advantage due to its population. As warfare becomes more robotic, even assuming parity in robotic warfare technology, the old population advantage erodes.
For mechanical drone components, perhaps. But for drone technology, as Donald Brooks points out in The Mythical Man Month, more people often means less production.
A bit idealistic, but I like it.
True enough, the only reason Taiwan isn't already under the CCP's control is because of how well it is defended, and because of its allies. But things can change.
They say, you can vote your way into totalitarianism, but you have to shoot your way out. And more an more people choose de facto totalitarianism. All you have to do is call it "preserving democracy".
RE Idealism: Tomorrow will always be different from today.
For a given (subjective) value metric, tomorrow will be either better or worse than today.
But tomorrow will never be the same as today.
Centuries ago, every year was pretty much a repeat of the previous year. There's good and bad in that.
The 'average' citizen has always been a factor, even in totalitarian societies. But it's easier to make things better in a 'free' society'. And more difficult in a totalitarian society. But, yes, it's all subjective.
Stay tuned for an upcoming post to that effect on my Substack.
Perhaps it's true that the only reason Taiwan isn't already under the CCP's control is because of how well it *has been* defended, and because of its allies. But looking forward, Xi gets more paranoid every year (the occupational hazard of the authoritarian career) while Taiwan's industry gets more vital to the world's economy every year. And every year, human soldiers and sailors become less important in warfare, so every year that China advantage erodes. At the pace of development of AI managed drone swarms, can you imagine what warfare is going to look like by the time China sets out with its tubs to attack?
But China is developing drones, too. Russia is using drones offensively in Ukraine. The next big thing in invasions might be a sky full of drones that can only be defended by another sky full of defensive drones.
And let's never forget tactical nuclear devices...
OK, so we have two countries, one of which has a huge military recruitment advantage due to its population. As warfare becomes more robotic, even assuming parity in robotic warfare technology, the old population advantage erodes.
We can 'discuss' all day. If one country has four times the population they can theoretically maintain four times the production.
For mechanical drone components, perhaps. But for drone technology, as Donald Brooks points out in The Mythical Man Month, more people often means less production.